ISM 5219 Test 5 and Final Exam

You may work in groups of 1, 2, or 3 class members. Use EXCEL and neural networks.

Download data for prime rate and CPI, at least 5 years of concurrent monthly data for each. Divide this data into 2 approximately equal intervals (a learning sample and a test sample). Calculate change in each series for 3 month intervals.

(a) Fit an autoregressive model to change in prime rate in the earlier interval (learning sample) for each time series. Test that model on the out-of-sample interval (the test sample). Evaluate the models in-sample and out-of-sample. Present your results in tabular form with a narrative explanation.

Put all of this work into a .DOC file and attach it to an email with the subject "ism 5219 test 5 your name" and send the email to william.leigh@bus.ucf.edu by 10 pm on the night of the test (7/14/2005). If there are multiple members of your group have as the subject "ism 5219 test 5 group", and list the group member names in the body of the email.

Thank you.